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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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