Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
